El Niño readiness · updated Oct 28, 2026
Is your province ready for El Niño?
PAGASA's drought outlook, side by side with the public water, irrigation and impounding projects meant to soften it. Every figure links to its source; a project open past its target date is a schedule gap to ask about, not a finding of wrongdoing.
noaa_cpc
El Niño Advisory
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
Issued/updated Oct 8, 2026 · checked Oct 28, 2026 · NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
PAGASA (official, Philippines)
El Niño Advisory
A strong to very strong El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific; Most climate models predict that the ongoing El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2027, with its peak expected before the end of 2026. Its associated impacts may continue through the first half of 2027.
Issued/updated Oct 21, 2026 · checked Oct 28, 2026 · PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status
14 provinces where PAGASA says drought or dry spells are likely, 14 more with dry conditions likely. They hold 2,331 DPWH water/irrigation projects (₱19.07B); 331 (₱4.96B) are still open past their target date.
Check my area
Readiness map
Provinces shaded on PSA/NAMRIA boundaries. White dots mark open DPWH water projects past their target date (bigger = more).
Stalled & delayed water projects
On-going or not-yet-started projects whose DPWH target end date has passed. Download as CSV for your own analysis.
Data-quality note: nationwide, 299 water/irrigation projects (₱2.64B) report 100% progress but are still listed On-Going in DPWH records. These are marked “status not updated?” below and in the CSV. A lagging status field is the most common reason; it is not evidence of a problem.
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Source: DPWH Transparency portal status and target end date. “Past target” can reflect approved time extensions DPWH has not published; it is a prompt to check, not a finding.
Provinces in PAGASA's outlook
* PAGASA named the region (e.g. "most of Bicol"); applied to each province in it. Projects matched by DPWH district engineering office. Source: DPWH transparency portal.
What's being done
DBM releases (SARO/NCA) in the last three fiscal years whose stated purpose mentions El Niño, drought, irrigation, water supply, NIA, LWUA or the NDRRM Fund / Quick Response Fund. NDRRMF/QRF releases are all-hazards (not El Niño-specific). DBM release documents don't name a province, so these are national.
- ₱289,381 · NCA NCA-BMB-E-25-0015895 · Nov 26, 2025 · DroughtTo cover the implementation of project entitled, "Development of Artificial Groundwater Recharge Facility for Drought and Flooding Mitigation", chargeable against trust receipts.
- ₱219,500 · NCA NCA-BMB-E-24-0016630 · Nov 25, 2024 · DroughtTo cover the implementation of the project entitled "Integrated Drought Management", funded by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), chargeable against trust receipts.
- ₱3.6M · NCA NCA-ROIVA-26-0013061 · Oct 13, 2026 · NDRRMF/QRF (all-hazards)Trust Receipts - To cover the cash requirement for the replacement, reconstruction, rehabilitation, and/or repair of school buildings and facilities under the Quick Response Fund (QRF), repair/rehabilitation of school buildings of the following schools in
- ₱2.43B · NCA NCA-BMB-B-26-0012878 · Oct 9, 2026 · NDRRMF/QRF (all-hazards)To cover the replenishment of the FY 2026 Quick Response Fund.
- ₱2.47B · SARO SARO-BMB-B-26-0011911 · Oct 9, 2026 · NDRRMF/QRF (all-hazards)To cover the replenishment of the FY 2026 Quick Response Fund.
- ₱1.50B · SARO SARO-BMB-C-26-0007543 · Jul 24, 2026 · NIATo cover the additional national government subsidy to the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) for the immediate full rehabilitation and replacement of rubber bladder in Bustos Dam, per Office of the President approval dated July 13, 2026.
- ₱35.98B · SARO SARO-BMB-C-26-0002458 · Apr 29, 2026 · NIATo cover the additional FY 2026 national government subsidy to the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) for the implementation of various programs and projects, per Office of the President approval dated April 14, 2026.
- ₱5.00B · SARO SARO-BMB-C-26-0002459 · Apr 29, 2026 · NIATo cover the additional FY 2026 national government subsidy to the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) for the Government of the Philippines (GoP) Counterpart of the Jalaur River Multipurpose Project Stage II.
- ₱365.6M · SARO SARO-BMB-C-26-0005233 · Jul 3, 2026 · LWUATo cover the FY 2025 national government subsidy to the LWUA for the expansion of service area coverage and operationalization of Non-Operational Water Districts, approved for release by the Office of the President on June 3, 2026
- ₱20.2M · SARO SARO-BMB-C-24-0013681 · Sep 11, 2024 · LWUATo cover the release of National Government subsidy to Local Water Utilities Administration for the repair/rehabilitation of water facilities in three (3) water districts in Region II damaged by Super Typhoon "Egay" in 2023 per approval by the Office of the Pr…
- ₱923,647 · NCA NCA-BMB-E-26-0011778 · Sep 17, 2026 · IrrigationTo cover the implementation of DA-Philippine Rice Research Institute-funded project titled "National Cooperative Test for inbred lines (NCT 1); Multi-location adaptation trial for the irrigated lowland inbred entries (NCT-MAT); NCT-Insect screening; NCT-D
- ₱928.9M · NCA NCA-BMB-E-26-0011540 · Sep 17, 2026 · IrrigationTo cover the funding requirements for the fourth quarter of FY 2026 for the implementation of the Locally-Funded Project - "Solar-Powered Irrigation System" per Office of the President approval dated March 31, 2026.
NIA irrigation projects (FY 2026): 1,737 projects, ₱49.60B allotment, 669 with contracts — NIA Flow. Province breakdown in "Check my area".
Not yet included: LWUA / water-district projects (no public project-level dataset found), DA El Niño interventions. Province loss figures come from NDRRMC SitRep No. 42 (El Niño 2023) and DA regional reports where published; national DA 2023–24 final bulletin: ₱15.30B, 333,195 farmers, 15 regions — PNA.
Status changes we've detected
- No changes since tracking began.
Alerts
Province email alerts (PAGASA outlook changes, new stalled projects) are designed but not switched on yet — they need an outgoing mail server. Meanwhile, this page refreshes daily from PAGASA, NOAA and DPWH.